Burnley v Manchester City Preview: Guardiola’s side still susceptible at the back
Sometimes home advantage can be overrated when assessing the odds of a football match and how the hosts might perform but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case with Burnley. The newly promoted Clarets have equipped themselves pretty well for this Premier League season by all accounts, but the disparity between their performances at Turf Moor compared to on the road is stark.
Sean Dyche’s men have a total of 14 points from 12 games, a very respectable total given they were widely expected to struggle again this season but 13 of those points have come at home, the one exception was a battling 0-0 draw at Old Trafford but generally they’ve been terrible on the road. Never was this travel sickness more evident than in Monday’s trip to the Hawthorns where the visitors were dismantled by West Brom 4-0.
Luckily, Saturday sees Burnley return to their Lancashire home as they welcome the title favourites Manchester City. Considering Dyche’s men have already beaten Liverpool, Everton and Watford on home soil the quote of 9/1 (10.0) with Betway could well attract a little support from those who love to take a shot at long odds. City are the overwhelming favourites at 2/7 (1.29) despite a midweek Champions League trip to Borussia Monchengladbach while the draw is a 5/1 (6.0) chance.
Opposing Manchester City at such a short price is a relatively low risk/high reward strategy and some punters may be tempted by the Burnley/Draw selection on the double chance market. That’s priced at 13/5 (3.60) and considering the visitors have only won two of their previous five league games, it’s not without appeal but there are better options in the market for those seeking a solid return.
They may have beaten Crystal Palace last weekend but all is not well with Pep Guardiola’s men. After that game the Spaniard admitted that his side can kiss goodbye to their title ambitions if their performances don’t improve and the main issue seems to be at the back.
One clean sheet in the last 13 matches in all competitions isn’t the form of potential champions and both teams to score looks a tempting play at 17/20 (1.85). The Clarets have scored 10 of their 11 Premier League goals on this ground this term and they’ll certainly offer enough going forward to give this selection a good chance of landing.
Over 2.5 goals is just a 1/2(1.50) shot so there is certainly a bit of extra juice in backing Burnley to expose this City backline for those who are hoping for a high-scoring game. Anyone expecting plenty of fireworks in the day’s early kick off can get 6/5 (2.20) on at least four goals being scored with Betway.
For a bigger price, consider Manchester City to win and BTTS which is priced at 17/10 (2.70) with the same firm. Few will want to back City outright at 2/7 (1.29) but adding the BTTS element – something which has landed in six of their eight league wins this season – makes it a much more attractive betting proposition and the away form has actually been better than at the Etihad. The favourites have won five of their six road trips and may have too much for Burnley but it seems unlikely they’ll keep the capable hosts at bay.