Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich: Action to Unfold after the Interval
The two biggest clubs in Germany meet in Der Klassiker on Saturday evening and this game provides a tricky prospect for punters to decode. Neither side has looked infallible this season, as usual Bayern Munich sit top of the Bundesliga, although they were held by Hoffenheim last time out, but Dortmund are lagging behind after a stuttering start to the campaign.
Thomas Tuchel‘s side thumped Hamburg 5-2 in their final game before the international break but prior to that they failed to pick up maximum points from the previous four league matches with three draws and a 2-0 defeat to fellow Champions League side Bayer Leverkusen.
Dortmund are understandably the outsiders with Ladbrokes at 5/2 (3.50) despite their home advantage. Carlo Ancelotti’s side are available at Evens (2.0) with the same firm, one of the shortest quotes on the market so this firm are clearly trying to dodge the German champions. The draw is also a 5/2 (3.50) at the time of writing.
While this game sees two of the three highest scoring players in the division thus far – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (11 goals) and Robert Lewandowski (7 goals) – recent history suggests chances could be few and far between.
At least one team failed to score in eight of the previous 11 meetings in all competitions and only two of the last nine went over 2.5 goals, suggesting that these clashes are more of a tactical chess match than a fire fight although Dortmund do need to make up some ground on those at the top of the table already.
Both teams to score in this one is priced at just 4/6 (1.67), perhaps the defensive deficiencies on both sides have impacted Ladbrokes’ pricing which is in line with the rest of the market while over 2.5 goals is an 8/11 (1.73) shot. Those opposing goals can get Evens (2.0) on the game featuring fewer than three strikes on Saturday night.
It’s tricky to extract too much value in the main punting options, as usual the bookmakers haven’t taken a huge view on either side so it could pay to turn to one of the side markets for a slice of value. One factor that has often shown itself in games involving these two sides in the league this season has been late goals, particularly Dortmund who have been at their best in the final 45 minutes of matches.
Tuchel’s men have netted 72% of their goals after the half time interval and while the trend is not quite as pronounced on the Bayern side (54.1% of league goals), the cagey nature of meetings between these two clubs could add some weight to the idea that the action could unfold in earnest after the break.
The second half to be the highest scoring is an Even money (2.0) shot at Ladbrokes, a price well worth considering as neither team are likely to give too much away in the early exchanges. Those searching for a bigger price should consider the Draw/Bayern Munich outcome in the Half time/Full time market for the same reasons.